Articles published in January, 2009

  1. Are we under or over hyping economic news?

    Published on Thursday, January 29th, 2009

    Over the holidays the only way I could feed my daily need for news was to watch either BBC or CNN. This diet of television news produced for a world audience left me with two lingering impressions.

    The first is that these iconic news services are depicting the economies of North America and Europe to be under far greater stress than our media portrays. It was not a case of the media dramatising the negative, rather a grim daily roll of rescue packaging to prevent fundamentally sound businesses being sucked under through the troubles of others.

    Commentators, whether European or American based, were of one mind. The world economy will not start to turn itself around until the American economy gets traction, and what has been done to date represents only the first tentative and superficial initiatives that will ultimately be taken.

    It seemed every new authoritative report or study published made the point that previous predictions around the extent of the situation, or the time required for a turn around, were too optimistic. The after shock would appear to have the potential for more bite than the initial onslaught.

    On the positive was the single minded determination and focus of world leaders to do whatever is necessary to kick start the world’s economies.

    My out-take was that while we need to be cautious about talking ourselves into making things worse than they really are, conversely we need to be just as cautious about hyping the positives to the point where we don’t see an advancing tsunami. On balance, I’m now more cautious about the coming 12 months than I was previously.

    On a lighter note, the other big impression was the extent to which international news presenters have ‘loosened’ up in their delivery. Rather than staid talking heads, presenters were using their hands, voicing opinions, being animated and coming out from behind their barriers.

    It was more akin to someone being in the room with you chatting about world affairs. No doubt, a sign of things to come here, in time!

  2. Of course we can do it

    Published on Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

    By all accounts the coming year will be very challenging.  According to Treasury, the outlook for our economy and the employment look bleak.

    But the real risk is that we talk ourselves into a state of paralysis, or worse still, allow ourselves to be talked into one.

    While there is no ignoring the impact of contracting economies, history proves our resilience to international shocks: 9/11, the Asian financial crisis of 2002-03, the SARS outbreak in 2002. Each had an impact on our economy.

    Against this backdrop, perhaps the worst that can happen is that we believe everything we are told, because one lesson history has taught is that new opportunities arise from new challenges.

    An acquaintance in the USA tells me that even now, the financial situation there is changing the status quo.  People, she says, are talking to each other about matters that were hitherto entirely private. People are seeking advice on financial matters previously not talked about.  Surely even this is a change for the better, as people reach out to each other.

    I read today that graduates are returning to university as an alternative to job woes.  This is a constructive solution, and surely it can result in new insights from their research. 

    If necessity is the mother of invention this year will certainly be a positive and inventive one. 

    The one hairy monster we have to learn to curb this year is the prattling of doom merchants.  They are not to be believed, as for all their words, none could see very far ahead, which was proven when we plunged into the current recession without a word of warning from them.

    There should be one rule to commentators and spokespeople this year.  If you don’t have anything positive to contribute, don’t! 

  3. Stir crazy in Fiji? Get a life!

    Published on Friday, January 16th, 2009

    It has taken a while, but Kiwis have finally been outdone by the Aussies in terms of government dependency. 

    I was horrified to read in yesterday’s Sydney Morning Herald that stranded Australians were seriously looking to their government to get them out of Fiji.  This follows the complaints by some prospective tourists that their government’s travel advisory websites had not made the scope of the flooding in Fiji sufficiently clear.  They were furious that their travel had been cancelled.  Hello!  Who was their travel agent?  And why suddenly is it the responsibility of the government to keep them advised of the weather in the holiday destination of their choice?

    But these complaints were capped off by trapped tourists complaining that their government has not sent a plane to fetch them from their sodden tropical paradise.  One weary Aussie woman holidaying at the Sheraton Fiji complained her children had been going “stir crazy” in their hotel room because there was absolutely nothing to do.  “We were allowed in and now can’t do anything to get out.  We feel like we’ve been talking to ourselves because all efforts to get help have been ignored.”

    It is the wet season in Fiji, isn’t it?   Why then would you be surprised if it rains?  You might not expect flooding on the scale they’ve experienced, but why suddenly should this misfortune be the responsibility of your government?

    While I now routinely expect the knee-jerk reaction of blaming authorities and the government for every unpleasantness in our lives – and we Kiwis are really good at it – the expectations of some stranded Aussie holiday makers sets a new low standard of government dependence!

    Personally I think trans-Tasman governments should have ignored the plight of indigenous Fijians and spent the relief money air-drops on free computer games, DVDs and sunbeds for their own witless citizens.

    Perhaps the ramification of the current global downturn will gradually bring some perspective and responsibility for self back into their lives.