The economist Edgar Fielder, who served under Presidents Nixon and Ford, is quoted as saying ‘ask five economists, and you’ll get five different answers – six if one went to Harvard’.
This self deprecating comment would draw mirth from his peers because they understood the complexities and intricacies of taking historical economic data, and trying to forecast what it means for the future.
For those of us who are not economists, and who try to make sense out of what will happen on the basis of the media coverage of economists’ comments, the result can be bewildering.
We are no sooner buoyed by headlines proclaiming New Zealand’s recession is ‘over’ than we are brought down to earth by headlines elsewhere forecasting the economy is going ‘nowhere fast’ over the next 18 months or that unemployment will ‘continue to rise’.
How can this be? Well, the answer certainly isn’t the economists are playing mind games with us, or the media is misquoting or misunderstanding what the economists are saying.
In part it is the price we pay for trying to understand an issue as complex as the economy on the basis of sound bytes, or a 250 word précis of a 60 page report.
It is also a reminder that we should view potted media coverage of most topics as the start point – and that there is far more to the full story than the media will ever give us.
If we want that full story, then we are required to go out of our way to learn more.
Which bring us round to the issue of whether it is the media’s role to inform us, or to report what others are saying?
It can be argued that economics is one area where the print and online media in particular do try to inform and give a balanced view, through comment by in-house and external columnists, and by in-depth coverage of personal finance, business and agricultural items.
Whether we choose to read the in-depth economic stuff with the same desire for knowledge as when we are looking at the All Blacks’ performance or nutritional and health issues, is another matter.
What a week when we’ve just witnessed the miracle of our very own
The Sunday Star Times yesterday reported that Auckland’s new community laboratory company, Labtests (which won the contract from DML) believed that some of the complaints it was receiving about its service were the result of “propaganda”.
Let me get one thing off my chest, whether it was on the record, off the record, a throwaway comment, a personal observation or an official declaration, fortunately for President Obama he was right on the money. Kayne West is a jackass.
Phil Goff has surely got the worst job in New Zealand politics right now? Taking over the leadership of a party that was soundly trumped in an election is bad enough. But inheriting this role from St Helen, whose new position in the UN only serves to entrench her legacy as PM, makes his situation even more difficult.
I have a blended family, a blended cat family. For a whole raft of legacy reasons I’ve ended up playing den-mother to four cats, which is odd really because I’m not that much of a fan.
A propensity to blame others and our environment while avoiding personal responsibility has become a national trait. It now appears however, that we do not have this on our own…