Two high profile political polls have been released recently that have shown a significant gap between the two leading parties in New Zealand looking to form a government post 26th November. For the party strategists there is a risk that such large gaps can lead to a sense of panic on one side and complacency on the other. I do wonder sometimes however whether public opinion is driving poll results or polling results are actually driving public opinion. Is this a case of the ‘tail wagging the dog?’
Polling is generally undertaken by research companies directly phoning constituents at home at those inconvenient times of the day to gather their data. It is widely acknowledged however that home phoning does not capture a true cross section of society. Groups not to be represented in such sampling include the elderly (in rest homes and other institutions), the poor that do not have home phones and the younger mobile phone driven generation to name a few, but all of whom are clearly eligible to vote. Without trying to make sweeping generalisations, political polls tend to under represent the left and center-left parties for this reason.
The other factor is that widespread communication of polling results, particularly via the media, send strong messages that undoubtedly influence some voting patterns – particularly around strategic voting where constituents are hesitant about giving too much political power to one party. The end result is probably that those parties that are under-represented in the initial polling could be adversely affected by the polling methodology rather than actual public sentiment. It could be somewhat of a double whammy.
As Annette King recently said “bugger the polls”! She might be right.
As predicted, with the countdown to the RWC underway, negative stories that have 
Excuse me if I’ve said this before, but it’s sad when price is the only message of certain communication initiatives, and value is left unconsidered.