The economist Edgar Fielder, who served under Presidents Nixon and Ford, is quoted as saying ‘ask five economists, and you’ll get five different answers – six if one went to Harvard’.

This self deprecating comment would draw mirth from his peers because they understood the complexities and intricacies of taking historical economic data, and trying to forecast what it means for the future.

For those of us who are not economists, and who try to make sense out of what will happen on the basis of the media coverage of economists’ comments, the result can be bewildering.

We are no sooner buoyed by headlines proclaiming New Zealand’s recession is ‘over’ than we are brought down to earth by headlines elsewhere forecasting the economy is going ‘nowhere fast’ over the next 18 months or that unemployment will ‘continue to rise’.

How can this be? Well, the answer certainly isn’t the economists are playing mind games with us, or the media is misquoting or misunderstanding what the economists are saying.

In part it is the price we pay for trying to understand an issue as complex as the economy on the basis of sound bytes, or a 250 word précis of a 60 page report.

It is also a reminder that we should view potted media coverage of most topics as the start point – and that there is far more to the full story than the media will ever give us.

If we want that full story, then we are required to go out of our way to learn more.

Which bring us round to the issue of whether it is the media’s role to inform us, or to report what others are saying?

It can be argued that economics is one area where the print and online media in particular do try to inform and give a balanced view, through comment by in-house and external columnists, and by in-depth coverage of personal finance, business and agricultural items.

Whether we choose to read the in-depth economic stuff with the same desire for knowledge as when we are looking at the All Blacks’ performance or nutritional and health issues, is another matter.

Tags: Economics, Edgar Fielder, Future forecasts, media, Media's role, recession

This entry was posted on Wednesday, September 30th, 2009 at 11:45 am and is filed under Economy, Journalism, PR Matters. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.