Posts Tagged ‘public opinion’

1. Tail Wagging the Dog?

   Published on Wednesday, August 24th, 2011
   Two high profile political polls have been released recently that have shown a significant gap between the two leading parties in New Zealand looking to form a government post 26th November. For the party strategists there is a risk that such large gaps can lead to a sense of panic on one side and complacency on the other. I do wonder sometimes however whether public opinion is driving poll results or polling results are actually driving public opinion. Is this a case of the ‘tail wagging the dog?’

   Polling is generally undertaken by research companies directly phoning constituents at home at those inconvenient times of the day to gather their data. It is widely acknowledged however that home phoning does not capture a true cross section of society. Groups not to be represented in such sampling include the elderly (in rest homes and other institutions), the poor that do not have home phones and the younger mobile phone driven generation to name a few, but all of whom are clearly eligible to vote. Without trying to make sweeping generalisations, political polls tend to under represent the left and center-left parties for this reason.

   The other factor is that widespread communication of polling results, particularly via the media, send strong messages that undoubtedly influence some voting patterns – particularly around strategic voting where constituents are hesitant about giving too much political power to one party. The end result is probably that those parties that are under-represented in the initial polling could be adversely affected by the polling methodology rather than actual public sentiment. It could be somewhat of a double whammy.

   As Annette King recently said “bugger the polls”! She might be right.

2. Corporate communications fact number one – perception is reality

   Published on Friday, August 28th, 2009
   You can’t change reality with facts even if your facts are more pertinent than the other persons.  To their own detriment too many people have ignored public opinion on the basis that it’s just plain wrong thinking, and all that’s required is to state the facts. I am not talking about the smacking law – that ship has sailed and can be visited in another blog another day.  
    
   I am talking about consumers relationships and experiences with products and brands, and how changes imposed on the consumer by companies need to be thought through carefully.  Now you’re with me – Cadbury of course took a wee while to realise this, but they did eventually acknowledge the error of their ways and reverted to their original recipe.  But only when they recognised the power of public opinion. 

   Never mind the results of any blind taste testing or solid reasons of corporate social responsibility, people genuinely believed the new palm oil-containing product tasted inferior to the original recipe.

   But now that the heat is off, I wonder if people are complaining about the taste of the very same chocolate still available in supermarkets at a discount as we wait for the new original stock to arrive. And now the campaign is over I dare anyone to swap the packaging at home and see if anyone notices the difference.

   Recently I have been eating a whole lot more chocolate than usual.  Our household’s normal adult intake of zero has rapidly increased because my children’s school (which I won’t name for fear of the critics coming down on us) has been selling Cadbury product by the box-load in one of its annual fundraising drives. 

   Not one person I have spoken to has rejected the product on the basis that it contains palm oil.  In fact, we are all complaining that the neighbourhood is overrun with chocolate and there are competing stalls on the road in the weekend as enterprising kids try to convince me that their chocolate is nicer than the box my son brought home.

   Of course, ours is nicer because it is his chocolate – and are there no calories in school fundraising chocolate either? Okay I am joking, except in this respect: we can all find ways to justify our actions, and those perceptions are real.  At their own peril communicators will forget that perception is reality.